NEW YORK, 11 March (UN Population Division/DESA) – World population is projected to

reach 7 billion early in 2012, up from the current 6.8 billion, and surpass 9 billion people by

projections, released today.

Most of the additional 2.3 billion people will enlarge the population of developing countries,

which is projected to rise from 5.6 billion in 2009 to 7.9 billion in 2050, and will be distributed

among the population aged 15-59 (1.2 billion) and 60 or over (1.1 billion) because the number of

children under age 15 in developing countries will decrease.

In contrast, the population of the more developed regions is expected to change minimally,

passing from 1.23 billion to 1.28 billion, and would have declined to 1.15 billion were it not for

the projected net migration from developing to developed countries, which is projected to average

2.4 million persons annually from 2009 to 2050.

national levels and to calculate many other key indicators commonly used by the United Nations

system.

Currently the population of the less developed regions is still young, with children under age 15

accounting with 29 per cent of the population and young persons aged 15 to 24 accounting for a

further 19 per cent. In fact, the numbers of children and young people in the less developed

regions are at an all time high (1.7 billion children and 1.1 billion young people), posing a major

challenge for their countries, which are faced with the necessity of providing education or

employment to large cohorts of children and youth even as the current economic and financial

crisis unfolds. The situation in the least developed countries is even more pressing because

children under 15 constitute 40 per cent of their population and young people account for a

further 20 per cent.

In the more developed regions, children and youth account for just 17 per cent and 13 per cent of

the population, respectively, and whereas the number of children is expected to change little in

the future, remaining close to 200 million, the number of young people is projected to decrease

from 160 million currently to 134 million in 2050.

In both the more and the less developed regions, the number of people in the main working ages,

25 to 59, is at an all time high: 605 million and 2.5 billion, respectively. Yet, whereas in the more

developed regions that number is expected to peak over the next decade and stagnate thereafter,

in the less developed regions it will continue rising, reaching 3.6 billion in 2050 and increasing by

nearly half a billion over the next decade. These population trends justify the urgency of

supporting employment creation in developing countries as part of any strategy to address the

global economic crisis that the world is experiencing.

Furthermore, the implications of population ageing cannot be dismissed. In the more developed

regions, the population aged 60 or over is increasing at the fastest pace ever (growing at 1.9 per

cent annually) and is expected to increase by more than 50 per cent over the next four decades,

rising from 264 million in 2009 to 416 million in 2050. Compared with the more developed

world, the population of the less developed regions is ageing rapidly. Over the next two decades,

the population aged 60 or over in the developing world is projected to increase at rates far

surpassing 3 per cent per year and its numbers are expected to rise from 475 million in 2009 to

1.6 billion in 2050.

in the less developed regions as a whole is expected to drop from 2.73 children per woman in

2005-2010 to 2.05 in 2045-2050. The reduction projected for the group of 49 least developed

countries is even steeper: from 4.39 children per woman to 2.41 children per woman. To achieve

such reductions, it is essential that access to family planning expands, particularly in the least

developed countries. Around 2005, the use of modern contraceptive methods in the least

developed countries was a low 24 per cent among women of reproductive age who were married

or in union and a further 23 per cent of those women had an unmet need for family planning. The

urgency of realizing the projected reductions of fertility is brought into focus by considering that,

if fertility were to remain constant at the levels estimated for 2005-2010, the population of the

less developed regions would increase to 9.8 billion in 2050 instead of the 7.9 billion projected by

assuming that fertility declines. That is, without further reductions of fertility, the world

population could increase by nearly twice as much as currently expected.

The projected population trends also depend on achieving a major increase in the proportion of

AIDS patients who get anti-retroviral therapy to treat the disease and on the success of efforts to

control the further spread of HIV.

prevalence reached 1 per cent or higher at some point during 1980-2007 or where the number of

people living with HIV/AIDS was at least half a million in 2007. Among those 58 countries, 38

are in Africa and 15 had an adult HIV prevalence of at least 5 per cent in 2007.

prevalence was revised downward (Gambia, Madagascar, Moldova, Myanmar and Niger) and one

has been added (Mauritius). In projecting the effect of the disease, it has been assumed that 26 of

the affected countries will manage to provide by 2015 anti-retroviral treatment to 70 per cent or

more of the persons suffering from AIDS and that another nine will reach treatment levels

ranging from 50 per cent to 60 per cent by 2015. In the rest of the affected countries, treatment

levels are expected to be lower, reaching between 40 per cent and 50 per cent by 2015. It is

further assumed that persons receiving treatment survive, on average, 27.8 years instead of the

11.7 years expected in the absence of treatment.

These assumptions together with the generally lower prevalence levels estimated for recent years

depends on sustained funding for HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment programmes in the

affected countries, funding that is highly dependent on the commitment of donor countries and

needs to be maintained despite the global economic downturn.

that are currently under preparation. Data on particular countries can also be accessed online at

Population Division, New York, NY 10017, USA, (Tel: (212) 963-3179, Fax: (212) 963-2147).

1. In July 2009, the world population will reach 6.8 billion, 313 million more than in 2005

or a gain of 78 million persons annually. Assuming that fertility levels continue to

decline, the world population is expected to reach 9.1 billion in 2050 and to be increasing

by about 33 million persons annually at that time, according to the medium variant.

2. Future population growth is highly dependent on the path that future fertility takes. In the

medium variant, fertility declines from 2.56 children per woman in 2005-2010 to 2.02

children per woman in 2045-2050. If fertility were to remain about half a child above the

levels projected in the medium variant, world population would reach 10.5 billion by

2050. A fertility path half a child below the medium would lead to a population of 8

billion by mid-century. Consequently, population growth until 2050 is inevitable even if

the decline of fertility accelerates.

3. In the more developed regions, fertility has increased slightly in recent years so that its

of the slightly higher projected fertility and a sustained net in-migration averaging 2.4

million annually, the population of the more developed regions is expected to increase

slightly from 1.23 billion in 2009 to 1.28 billion in 2050.

4. The population of the 49 least developed countries is still the fastest growing in the

world, at 2.3 per cent per year. Although its rate of increase is expected to moderate

significantly over the next decades, the population of the least developed countries is

projected to double, passing from 0.84 billion in 2009 to 1.7 billion in 2050. Growth in

the rest of the developing world is also projected to be robust, though less rapid, with its

population rising from 4.8 billion to 6.2 billion between 2009 and 2050 according to the

medium variant.

5. Slow population growth brought about by reductions in fertility leads to population

ageing, that is, it produces populations where the proportion of older persons increases

while that of younger persons decreases. In the more developed regions, 22 per cent of

population is already aged 60 years or over and that proportion is projected to reach 33

per cent in 2050. In developed countries as a whole, the number of older persons has

already surpassed the number of children (persons under age 15), and by 2050 the

number of older persons in developed countries will be more than twice the number of

children.

6. Population ageing is less advanced in developing countries. Nevertheless, the populations

of a majority of them are poised to enter a period of rapid population ageing. In

developing countries as a whole, just 9 per cent of the population is today aged 60 years

or over but that proportion will more than double by 2050, reaching 20 per cent that year.

7. Globally, the number of persons aged 60 or over is expected almost to triple, increasing

from 739 million in 2009 to 2 billion by 2050. Furthermore, already 65 per cent of the

world's older persons live in the less developed regions and by 2050, 79 per cent will do

so.

8. In ageing populations, the numbers of persons with older ages grow faster the higher the

age range considered. Thus, whereas the number of persons aged 60 or over is expected

to triple, that of persons aged 80 or over (the oldest-old) is projected to increase four-fold,

to reach 395 million in 2050. Today, just about half of the oldest-old live in developing

countries but that share is expected to reach 69 per cent in 2050.

9. Although the population of all countries is expected to age over the foreseeable future,

the population will remain relatively young in countries where fertility is still high, many

of which are experiencing very rapid population growth. High population growth rates

prevail in many developing countries, most of which are least developed. Between 2010

and 2050, the populations of 31 countries, the majority of which are least developed, will

double or more. Among them, the populations of Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Niger,

Somalia, Timor-Leste and Uganda are projected to increase by 150 per cent or more.

10. In sharp contrast, the populations of 45 countries or areas are expected to decrease

between 2010 and 2050. These countries include Belarus, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria,

Croatia, Cuba, Georgia, Germany, Hungary, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Poland,

the Republic of Korea, Romania, the Russian Federation and Ukraine, all of which are

expected to see their populations decline by at least 10 per cent by 2050.

11. Population growth remains concentrated in the populous countries. During 2010-2050,

nine countries are expected to account for half of the world's projected population

increase: India, Pakistan, Nigeria, Ethiopia, the United States of America, the Democratic

Republic of Congo, the United Republic of Tanzania, China and Bangladesh, listed

according to the size of their contribution to global population growth.

12. Fertility has continued to fall in the vast majority of countries in the less developed

regions. The number of developing countries with high fertility (5 children or more per

woman) declined from 59 in 1990-1995 to 27 in 2005-2010, and their share of the world

population dropped from 13 per cent to 9 per cent. Over the same period, the number of

developing countries with fertility levels that do not ensure the replacement of the

population increased from 15 to 38.

13. Most developed countries have had below-replacement fertility (below 2.1 children per

woman) for two or three decades. Among the 45 developed countries with at least

100,000 inhabitants in 2009, 42 had below-replacement fertility in 1990-1995 and 44 did

in 2005-2010. However, between the 2000-2005 and 2005-2010, 34 developed countries

experienced slight increases in fertility. For the more developed regions as a whole, total

fertility increased from 1.58 to 1.64 children per woman between those two periods. Yet,

in 2005-2010, 25 developed countries, including Japan and most of the countries in

Southern and Eastern Europe, still had fertility levels below 1.5 children per woman.

14. In 2005-2010, the 76 countries with below-replacement fertility accounted for 47 per cent

of the world population. The most populous developing countries with belowreplacement

fertility are China, Brazil, Viet Nam, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Thailand

and the Republic of Korea, in order of population size.

15. Globally, total fertility is expected to fall from 2.56 children per woman in 2005-2010 to

2.02 in 2045-2050 according to the medium variant. However, in the more developed

regions, total fertility is projected to increase from 1.64 children per woman currently to

1.80 in 2045-2050. A major reduction of fertility is projected for the group of least

developed countries (from 4.39 to 2.41 children per woman) and the fertility of the rest of

the developing world is expected to drop from 2.46 children per woman currently to 1.93

in 2045-2050, thus nearly converging to the fertility levels by then typical of the

developed world.

16. The median age, that is, the age that divides the population in two halves of equal size, is

an indicator of population ageing. Globally, the median age is projected to increase from

29 to 38 years between 2009 and 2050. Europe has today the oldest population, with a

median age of nearly 40 years, which is expected to reach 47 years in 2050.

17. The median age is higher in countries that have been experiencing low fertility for a long

time. In 2010, 19 developed countries or areas are expected to have a median age of 40

years or higher, up from 11 in 2005. In addition, two developing countries, Hong Kong

SAR China and Singapore, have also reached median ages above 40 years. The

pervasiveness of population ageing will increase by 2050 when all 45 developed

countries are projected to have median ages higher than 40 years and 43 developing

countries will also have similarly high median ages. Whereas today about 7 per cent of

the world population lives in countries where median ages are 40 years or higher, the

equivalent proportion in 2050 is projected to be 43 per cent.

18. Countries where fertility remains high and has declined only moderately will experience

the slowest population ageing. By 2050, slightly fewer than one in five countries is

projected to have a median age under 30 years (37 countries). The youngest populations

will be found among the least developed countries, eight of which are projected to have

median ages below 25 years in 2050, including Afghanistan, Chad, Guinea-Bissau, Niger,

Somalia, Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania and Zambia.

19. Increasing longevity also contributes to population ageing. Globally, life expectancy at

birth is projected to rise from 68 years in 2005-2010 to 76 years in 2045-2050. In the

more developed regions, the projected increase is from 77 years in 2005-2010 to 83 years

inn 2045-2050, while in the less developed regions the increase is expected to be from 66

years currently to 74 years by mid-century.

20. Life expectancy remains low in the least developed countries, at just 56 years in 2005-

2010, and although it is projected to reach 69 years in 2045-2050, realizing such increase

is contingent on reducing the spread of HIV and combating successfully other infectious

diseases. Similar challenges must be confronted if the projected increase of life

expectancy in the rest of the developing countries, from under 68 years today to 76 years

by mid-century, is to be achieved.

21. A major concern is that most developing countries are unlikely to meet the goal of

reducing under-five mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015, as called for in the

developing countries with more than 100,000 inhabitants in 2009 will not reach that goal.

Furthermore, 59 developing countries, located mainly in sub-Saharan Africa or belonging

to the group of least developed countries, are projected to have in 2015 an under-five

mortality higher than 45 deaths per 1000, the less demanding target set by the Programme

of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development.

22. Among the more developed regions, Eastern Europe has the lowest life expectancy and it

has experienced reductions in life expectancy at birth since the late 1980s. In 2005-2010

life expectancy in the region increased somewhat but at 69.2 years was lower than it had

been in 1965-1970 (69.6 years). Despite having recorded some recovery since the late

1990s, Moldova, the Russian Federation and Ukraine have currently the lowest life

expectancies among developed countries (below 70 years).

23. Although the HIV/AIDS epidemic continues to be a major issue of concern in the global

health agenda, adult HIV prevalence reached a peak over the past decade or so in at least

two thirds of the 58 countries considered to be most affected by the epidemic and a

growing number of them are reaching and maintaining lower prevalence levels.

Nevertheless, in countries where prevalence has been high, the impact of the epidemic in

terms of morbidity, mortality and slower population growth continues to be evident.

Thus, in Southern Africa, the region with the highest prevalence of the disease, life

expectancy has fallen from 61 years in 1990-1995 to 52 years in 2005-2010 and is only

recently beginning to increase. Nevertheless, life expectancy in the region is not expected

to recover the level it had in the early 1990s before 2045. As a consequence, the growth

rate of the population in the region has plummeted, passing from 2.4 per cent annually in

1990-1995 to 0.6 per cent annually in 2005-2010 and is expected to continue declining

for the foreseeable future.

24. Given the low fertility prevailing in developed countries, deaths are expected to exceed

births over the foreseeable future. Consequently, the population of the more developed

regions would be decreasing if the excess of deaths over births were not counterbalanced

by a net migration gain. During 2010-2050, the net number of international migrants to

more developed regions is projected to be 96 million, whereas the excess of deaths over

births is 58 million, implying an overall growth of 38 million.

25. In 2005-2010, net migration in nine countries or areas more than doubled the contribution

of natural increase (births minus deaths) to population growth: Belgium, Macao SAR

China, Luxembourg, Malta, Qatar, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain. In addition,

in a further 11 countries or areas, net migration counterbalanced totally or in part the

excess of deaths over births. These countries are: Austria, the Channel Islands, Croatia,

the Czech Republic, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Portugal and the Russian

Federation.

26. In terms of annual averages, the major net receivers of international migrants during

2010-2050 are projected to be the United States (1.1 million annually), Canada (214,000),

the United Kingdom (174,000), Spain (170,000), Italy (159,000), Germany (110,000),

Australia (100,000) and France (100,000). The major countries of net emigration are

projected to be Mexico (-334,000), China (-309,000 annually), India (-253,000), the

Philippines (-175,000), Pakistan (-161,000), Indonesia (-156,000) and Bangladesh

(-148,000). Although the current economic crisis may reduce migration flows in

comparison to those registered over the recent past, the major economic and demographic

asymmetries that will persist are likely to remain powerful generators of international

migration over the medium-term future.